Monday, June 13, 2011

Just how good was that Nady trade?

While Xavier Nady was in town with the Arizona Diamondbacks, there was some talk in the local Pittsbugh media about the trade that sent him and relief pitcher Damaso Marte to the Yankees, in return for Jose Tabata, Jeff Karstens, Daniel McCutchen and Ross Ohlendorff. By all accounts this is was one of the most successful trades of the Neal Huntington era. To see just how successful it was, I ran the following analysis:

Using Fangraphs.com, I looked at three separate values. The first, is WAR (Wins Above Replacement). WAR is defined as follows: "WAR basically looks at a player and asks the question, “If this player got injured and their team had to replace them with a minor leaguer or someone from their bench, how much value would the team be losing?” This value is expressed in a wins format, so we could say that Player X is worth 6.3 wins to their team while Player Y is only worth 3.5 wins." link

I aggregated the WAR stat for all players from the day of the trade to today. Here are the results:

Tabata 3.3
Karstens 1.4
McCutchen -.8
Ohlendorff 1.9
Total = 5.8

Nady .3
Marte .3
Total = .6

So, since July 26, 2008, the players the Pirates picked up have been worth 5.8 wins compared to the .6 wins generated by Marte and Nady. The Pirates picked up 5.2 wins in the trade.

While picking up wins is desirable in any trade, what is most important for small market franchises like Pittsburgh is getting the most bang for every buck they spend. Teams like the Yankees, Red Sox and Dodg...errr, Met...errr, um, big market teams in general, can afford to be somewhat less efficient with their resources. This is not a privilege the Pirates enjoy. To be competitive, the Pirates need to pay less and get more. It is exactly this aspect of the trade that arguably makes it Neal Huntington's masterpiece.

To tap into the resource efficiency of this trade, I looked at the salaries of each player and compared it to his "free agent dollar value." Dollar value = "It is not a salary predictor, or in way a projection of what a player is going to get when he becomes a free agent. It is a backward looking value statistic that quantifies the replacement cost of a certain level of production based upon the market price for that value. In terms of function, it is much more of a price than a value. In other words, the best description of the question that the valuation is answering is “how much would you expect to have to pay to replace this performance in free agency if you knew that you were going to get this level of value exactly?” Link. Here are the results:

Name/Salary since 2008/dollar value

Tabata .6/13.7
Ohlendorff 1.7/8.5
McCutchen .616/-.8
Karstens 1.3/6.0
Total = 4.2/27.4

Nady 11.8/1.8
Marte 10/ .9
Total = 21.8/2.7

In sum, the Pirates paid 4.2 million for a level of performance that was worth about 27.4 million on the free agency market. In other words, to match the same level of performance they received in the trade through free agency, they would have had to pay and expected 23.2 million extra. Conversely, Nady and Marte have delivered a level of performance that would be worth an expected 2.7 million in free agency, while earning salaries of 21.8 million. (note: it is difficult to get perfect information on player salaries. See my post "Neal Huntington's Trades" for more on this issue. Also, these numbers have been revised from the original post. The original post did not include data from the exact day of the trade forward.)

Thanks for reading and leave any comments below.




9 comments:

  1. I would actually pay MONEy... real dollars.... to see all of Huntington's trades analyzed like that, and I suspect Coonelly and Nutting would too.

    Additionally, Littlefield vs. Huntington would be a real labor of love for you.

    Finally..... how much did the Capps give away cost the Pirates really?

    ReplyDelete
  2. Well fortunately you won't have to pay real dollars for anything I do...yet. I'm going to look into those free agent moves/giveaways in the future. Thanks for the comment.

    ReplyDelete
  3. These are basically short phrase loans that do give you meet
    your fiscal troubles inside a preferred distinct time period.
    Thinking about time limitations these loans are especially created above an obligation free platform.
    As such, these are kept totally 100 % free from credential checksums. Issues such as defaults, arrears, bankruptcy, CCJs and even IVAs are not thought to be here. Additional, there are also no collaterals connected with these loans. There is minimal paper work required on the part of borrower. There are also no hidden or further documentation or faxing expected here. Applying for these loans is also highly handy. Folks simply call for filling an on-line form and once this gets approved cash is received inside 24 hours time frame. These loans are commonly supplied below handy terms and conditions. The common simple applicant criteria right here is that they must be a UK resident and of 18 years of age.
    Check out my web site click

    ReplyDelete
  4. These are basically short phrase loans that do offer you meet your fiscal matters inside a preferred distinct time period.
    Considering time limitations these loans are especially designed above an obligation cost-free platform.
    As such, these are kept completely free from credential checksums.
    Difficulties such as defaults, arrears, bankruptcy, CCJs and even IVAs are not thought to be here.
    Additional, there are also no collaterals connected with these loans.
    There is minimal paper work necessary on the component of borrower.

    There are also no hidden or additional documentation or faxing needed right here.
    Applying for these loans is also highly practical.
    Persons basically demand filling an on line form and as soon as this gets approved cash is received inside 24 hours time frame.

    These loans are frequently provided under practical terms and circumstances.
    The basic basic applicant criteria right here is that they really should be a UK
    resident and of 18 years of age.
    Also visit my page - helpyourselfcommunity.org

    ReplyDelete
  5. These are fundamentally short term loans that do present
    you meet your fiscal matters inside a preferred certain time period.
    Considering time limitations these loans are particularly intended above
    an obligation free of charge platform. As such, these are kept entirely 100 % free from credential checksums. Problems such as defaults, arrears, bankruptcy, CCJs and even IVAs are not viewed as here. Further, there are also no collaterals connected with these loans. There is minimal paper work expected on the portion of borrower. There are also no hidden or additional documentation or faxing necessary right here. Applying for these loans is also exceptionally convenient. Individuals only demand filling an web based form and as soon as this gets approved cash is received within 24 hours time frame. These loans are typically offered under handy terms and situations. The basic basic applicant criteria here is that they should certainly be a UK resident and of 18 years of age.
    Also see my page :: myspace.ge

    ReplyDelete
  6. These are essentially brief phrase loans that do give you meet your fiscal troubles inside a desired precise time period.
    Taking into consideration time limitations these loans are particularly intended above an obligation totally free platform.

    As such, these are kept totally free of charge from credential checksums.
    Concerns such as defaults, arrears, bankruptcy, CCJs and even IVAs are not considered right here.
    Further, there are also no collaterals linked
    with these loans. There is minimal paper perform
    necessary on the component of borrower. There are also
    no hidden or extra documentation or faxing necessary right here.
    Applying for these loans is also especially handy. Men and women merely demand filling an
    on line form and when this gets approved money is received
    within 24 hours time frame. These loans are often provided under handy terms and conditions.
    The common fundamental applicant criteria here is that they should be a UK resident and of 18 years of age.
    Here is my weblog find more

    ReplyDelete
  7. These are basically short term loans that do deliver
    you meet your fiscal matters within a preferred specific
    time period. Taking into consideration time limitations these loans are especially created above an obligation free platform.
    As such, these are kept completely totally free from credential checksums.
    Challenges such as defaults, arrears, bankruptcy, CCJs
    and even IVAs are not regarded here. Additional, there are also no collaterals related with these loans.
    There is minimal paper work expected on the aspect of borrower.
    There are also no hidden or additional documentation or
    faxing required right here. Applying for these loans
    is also rather hassle-free. Men and women basically demand filling an over the internet type and when this
    gets approved cash is received inside 24 hours time frame.
    These loans are typically provided under handy terms and situations.
    The basic standard applicant criteria here is that they really should be a
    UK resident and of 18 years of age.
    Feel free to visit my page ; http://halfanhour.blogspot.com.au/2012/11/international-moocs-past-and-present.html

    ReplyDelete
  8. Thank you a bunch for sharing this with
    all folks you actually realize what you're talking approximately! Bookmarked. Please also visit my site =). We will have a hyperlink trade arrangement among us więcej informacji tutaj, http://jiujitsumatch.com/RussellSc
    my web page - więcej informacji tutaj

    ReplyDelete
  9. My family members all the time say that I am killing my time here at web, however I know I am getting experience everyday by reading thes good
    content.

    my website: GFI Norte

    ReplyDelete